Ukraine's Kursk Offensive: Analysis on Latest Developments

Both Zelenskyy and Putin have outlined their political objectives regarding Kursk. Putin has reportedly ordered that Kursk Oblast be fully liberated from the Ukrainian Armed Forces by October 1st.

Putin appears to have ordered the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast without redeploying troops from key areas where Russia is currently focused on offensive operations, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions. Putin’s intervention in military operations and setting political objectives for Kursk Oblast could potentially benefit Ukraine. Autocrats with a gangster mentality, like Putin, often prioritize their image over choosing a best possible option. Even in Russia's heavily controlled information space, it is still vital for Putin to maintain his image as a strong and invincible leader.

Zelenskyy also highlighted key objectives of Ukraine's Kursk offensive: 1. Establishing a buffer zone; 2. Strengthening and better preparing forces for the upcoming fall; 3. Further dismantling Russia's war-making capabilities.

Although Ukraine's element of surprise has faded, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) still continue to expand their flanks both east and west of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. In last 24 hours, AFU likely entered Korenovo and Vishnevka, west of Sudzha.

Furthermore, AFU destroyed three key bridges over the Seim River in Glushkovo, Zvannoe, and Karyzh, as well as a recently constructed pontoon crossing between Zvannoe and Glushkovo.

As a result, Russian troops in the southern part of the river are likely to face significant logistical challenges and the risk of entrapment.

Russia continues to experience a shortage of troops in Kursk Oblast. However, the Russian Armed Forces are quickly assembling new units to slow the Ukrainian advance. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the creation of three new military groupings today—"Kursk," "Bryansk," and "Belgorod"—to defend regions bordering Ukraine.

On the other had, the Russian Armed Forces have accelerated its offensive on Pokrovsk following AFU's incursion into the Kursk Oblast. Over the past week, Russian troops have captured the largest amount of territory in Ukraine's Donbas since the end of May.

Subsequently, Ukrainian authorities have today ordered the evacuation of families with children from Pokrovsk. As a major logistical hub for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the loss of Pokrovsk will substantially hinder their operations.

Kursk and Donbas are now closely interconnected, with developments in one area influencing the other. At this point, many factors remain uncertain, and the strategic success of both sides is yet to be seen.

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Photo credit: Independent

Source used RBC-Ukraine, DeepStateUA