Polish Foreign Intelligence Chief on Putin, Russia, and Threat to NATO
Colonel Paweł Szota, Head of Poland's Foreign Intelligence Agency, provides a strategic assessment of Putin's worldview and decision-making, Russia's long-term intentions, the most pressing challenges facing NATO and Europe, and the possibility of Russian escalation against the Baltic states.
CONTENT
Russia: Imminent Threat to Poland
Potential Russian Attack on NATO
Putin’s Worldview and the War
Russia, Oreshnik and Belarus
AI and Intelligence
Russia: Imminent Threat to Poland
The most immediate and direct threat to Poland comes from Russia. Driven by its imperial ambitions, Russia views Poland and the other countries on NATO’s eastern flank as obstacles to achieving its strategic objectives. Given what is happening in Ukraine and Russia’s failure to achieve its objectives there, there is an added cause for concern that Moscow may choose to escalate further.
Looking beyond hybrid warfare—including drone provocations, cyberattacks, and even direct kinetic strikes—we must recognize that the level of Russian aggression is already extremely high, and the risk of military confrontation is real.
Today, considering the full spectrum of threats posed by the Kremlin, we must shape our mindset accordingly and conduct our day-to-day activities as though an armed conflict with Russia were a realistic near-term possibility.
The Foreign Intelligence Agency has the tools, resources, and capabilities to serve as an indispensable and complementary force alongside the armed forces and the ministries responsible for foreign affairs, defense, and internal security.
Potential Russian Attack on NATO
This is a scenario [a serious provocation against one of the Baltic states] we are considering at the Foreign Intelligence Agency. We are discussing it with our allies in the region, and more broadly, on the assumption that it is a realistic scenario.
We assume that Russian provocations—testing NATO, which we are already observing, including in Poland—will certainly continue. These actions cost Russia very little. The Russians are observing our responses. They know that NATO responds to such acts politically rather than militarily, which is why they keep pushing the red lines.
The Russians are constantly testing us to see how far they can go. Today, I would not rule out any scenario [so-called “little green men” crossing the border of one of the Baltic states].
