Must Read: A Russian General on Russia's Political and Military Situation
A Rare Insider Perspective
Russian independent outlet Ekho Moskvy has published an anonymous interview with a Russian general who took part in the war against Ukraine. For obvious reasons, the interview is fully anonymized. To protect the source’s identity, neither the general’s name, rank, nor biographical details have been disclosed.
The interview’s authenticity should be treated with appropriate caution, as it cannot be independently verified. At the same time, it would not be unprecedented. Over the course of the war, several Russian generals and former senior military officers have publicly criticized the conduct and trajectory of the campaign. Against that backdrop, it is not surprising that another senior officer might choose to express similar views anonymously.
CONTENT
Ukrainian Deep Strikes
Russia-Ukraine Drone Race
Frontline Assessment
Ukrainian Siege of Crimea
Potential Turning Point for Russia
Peace Talks and Ending the War
Ukrainian Deep Strikes
The problem is, first and foremost, incompetence. Experienced commanders in the Aerospace Forces (VKS) have been removed and replaced with compliant report writers. Objective information about air raids is being distorted. No effective measures are being taken. And the measures that are being taken, such as installing Pantsir systems on the rooftops of high rise buildings in Moscow, are the height of idiocy. Yet they are presented as “creative solutions.” In reality, this is simply deceiving the public and Moscow’s leadership. It creates an illusion of effectiveness. Pantsir systems were never intended for this purpose; they are an element of the missile defense component of the S-400 system.
Over the past two years, the General Staff has effectively dismantled the country’s air defense command and control system. Everything has been thrown into the front. There is no air defense aviation. There are no commanders of air defense formations. Military air defense has been removed from the centralized command structure. And much more has been done besides.
The current approach is to protect individual facilities deep inside the country instead of establishing a no fly defensive belt along the border. With such an approach, there will be no success.
Russia-Ukraine Drone Race
There is potential [to catch up with Ukraine] in terms of quantity, but not quality. And quality is what matters most. Where the Ukrainian Armed Forces need to employ one drone, Russia requires at least five or six.
The microelectronics that form the foundation of radar systems and artificial intelligence cannot be rebuilt within the next five to seven years. Likewise, a domestic low Earth orbit communications satellite constellation that meets all the requirements for controlling precision UAVs at medium and long ranges, including the ability to adjust their flight path in real time, is unlikely to be developed before at least three years from now.
Frontline Assessment
The front is currently experiencing a period of stagnation.
