Latvian Intelligence Assessment of the Security Environment

The Latvian intelligence agency, the Constitution Protection Bureau, has released its annual report, unsurprisingly focusing on Russia, its war against Ukraine, and the resulting domestic repercussions.

Key Judgements

• The Russian intelligence and security services are currently developing their capabilities to organize sabotages in Europe. It is part of Moscow’s preparation for a possible military confrontation with NATO in the long term. The current concentration of Russian military resources in Ukraine makes the likelihood of a direct Russian-NATO military confrontation in 2025 rather low.

• However, if the war were to become “frozen” and Russia no longer had to suffer significant losses during the active hostilities in Ukraine, Moscow would be able to increase its military presence next to NATO’s northeastern flank, including the Baltics, within the next 5 years. This scenario would significantly increase the Russian military threat to NATO.

• Russian society remains highly supportive of the war, despite the negative consequences of sanctions faced by a large part of the population. It is expected that in 2025 Russian domestic policy will continue to be shaped by the needs of the defence sector to provide the Russian armed forces with the necessary weapons and equipment for the war in Ukraine as well as restore the military capabilities in case any potential peace settlement is reached.

• China and Russia have a strong and adaptable political bond. China has clearly demonstrated that it values the stability of the Russian regime. The collapse of Putin’s regime or its defeat by the West is seen as a significant geopolitical threat and a limiting factor for China’s foreign policy goals, i.e., transformation of the existing international order.

Peace Talks

Russia’s apparent readiness for a ceasefire does not equate to an actual interest in ending the war. Moscow just needs time to rebuild its forces for a much broader attack on Ukraine or even NATO. Gaining control over Ukraine is existentially important for Russia and Vladimir Putin in particular.

A potential peace and cessation of hostilities in Ukraine would only be temporary, threatening the country’s long-term security and giving Russia time to restore its military capabilities. Concluding a peace treaty before Russia has suffered a significant political, economic or military blow will only reinforce Moscow’s belief that it is just a matter of time before the Kremlin reaches its goals

A lasting peace can only be achieved through mechanisms that prevent Russia from launching any future attacks on Ukraine or even NATO.

Russian Domestic Policy

Several events illustrated Russia’s limited ability to guarantee the country’s internal security in wartime. Kyiv developed the ability to attack targets on Russian territory, increasing the number of strikes against critical and military infrastructure. Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk region demonstrated the lack of coordination between the Russian armed forces, the National Guard, and other institutions responsible for defence and internal security.

The need to replenish the military personnel deployed to Ukraine, including recruiting new people motivated by a relatively higher paygrade, has reduced the internal security services’ ability to replenish their own ranks. There is, for instance, a shortage of staff in Russian prisons, which saw several uprisings and hostage-takings in 2024.

Russia-China-North Korea

DPRK

The deepening relations between the Russia and North Korea were formalized on June 19, with the signing of a strategic partnership agreement during Putin’s visit to North Korea. For Russia, the successful cooperation so far has resulted in the supply of ammunition and weapons as well as the deployment of more than 10,000 soldiers replenishing the ranks of the Russian army in Ukraine. In exchange for the significant military assistance, Russia has provided North Korea with economic and military-technological assistance, supplying food and oil products as well as air defence systems and spy satellite technologies.

China
In 2024, Russia continued to strengthen the political and economic cooperation with China. Despite Moscow’s claims that cooperation with Beijing is mutually beneficial, Russia has become much more dependent on China since the invasion of Ukraine. To balance its growing dependence on China, Russia also sought to strengthen the cooperation with India. In July 2024, India was the largest Russian oil importer, temporarily surpassing China. India gains access to cheap energy and provides Russia with an additional outlet for resources. It is very likely that this mutually beneficial cooperation will continue to grow in 2025.

China has clearly demonstrated that it values the stability of the Russian regime. The collapse of Putin’s regime or its defeat by the West is seen as a significant geopolitical threat and a limiting factor for China’s foreign policy goals, i.e., transformation of the existing international order. The stability of the Russian regime is also important for the stability of the Chinese Communist Party’s power and the economic growth of the country. China is interested to maintain the existing political status quo in Russia as it supports China’s strategic competition with the United States and efforts to transform the existing international order into a more favourable one to authoritarian regimes. The stability of the Russian regime is also closely related to the economic benefits needed by Beijing to tackle its domestic challenges.

Russian Economy

The Russian economy in 2025 will be stable, but vulnerable. As risks and turbulence in the Russian economy will continue to increase, the Kremlin will do everything in its power to maintain normality and postpone solving the structural economic challenges that Russia will have to face in the future. Slowly but surely, the Russian economy will be moving towards backwardness, becoming increasingly less competitive and technologically developed.

Vulnerabilities of Russia in a Protracted War

With the ongoing hostilities and military needs remaining Moscow’s top priorities, Russia has very limited resources to address the many problems escalated by the war. This will not cause Russia to collapse, but will, almost certainly, weaken the country both domestically and internationally in the long run. As the war continues, the Russian economy will become less competitive, the public welfare will decline, the internal security will deteriorate, organized crime will escalate, and the Russian international influence will continue to decline. In the long term, the Western countries must reckon not only with Russia’s external aggression but also the increasing number of various internal problems that will overwhelm the Kremlin and create wider instability both inside Russia and beyond its borders.

Source: https://sab.gov.lv/files/uploads/2025/02/SAB-gada-parskats_2024_ENG.pdf