How Russia Sees the Drone War in Ukraine
Russia and Evolution of Modern Warfare
Ruslan Pukhov, Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, has written an in-depth piece on the coming revolution in military affairs, examining how drones have transformed the battlefield, assessing the challenges Russia faces, criticizing its current approach, and outlining how it might adapt by reshaping its defense-industrial base.
The events of the special military operation in Ukraine have demonstrated a fundamentally new character of large-scale military confrontation, marked by a transition from the “mechanized warfare” of the industrial era to “drone warfare,” or “digital” (“information”) warfare of the post-industrial era. In effect, we are now witnessing a new revolution in military affairs—a “drone revolution.” It is evident that this revolution will continue to develop and deepen further, as the capacity to expand “drone warfare” clearly exceeds the possibilities and prospects for overcoming it.
As the component base continues to be miniaturized and reduced in cost, and as networked solutions and artificial intelligence–based systems develop, warfare will increasingly take on the form of actions carried out by unimaginably large swarms of drones of the most diverse types, forms, sizes, and purposes (though predominantly ever smaller and cheaper), while at the same time becoming increasingly long-range and autonomous. These systems will become the primary means of warfare, as they combine reconnaissance and strike capabilities. The battlefield and rear areas extending dozens of kilometers will turn into a total “kill zone,” in which drones will destroy virtually everything.
Accordingly, the key reciprocal form of combat operations will become counter-drone warfare and the clearing of the sky of drones. Armed struggle will thus take the form of a fight for “drone fire superiority,” and only the achievement of such superiority will make it possible for one of the sides to advance on the ground and establish control over territory.
The organization, technical equipment, and armament of the armed forces must be subordinated to the task of fighting for such “drone fire superiority” and to creating the capability to operate under the conditions of that struggle.
