Four Years of War: Is the End in Sight?
The Russia–Ukraine War Enters Its Fifth Year
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces at the recaptured Hostomel Airport. Behind them, the wreckage of the Antonov An-225 “Mriya” (Source: Special Operation Forces)
CONTENT
Four Years of War
Transformation of Warfare
Ukrainian Strategy in 2026
Russian Strategy in 2026
Outlook: Is an End to the War in Sight?
Four Years of War
There have been many defining moments in the course of the Russia–Ukraine war. In my view, two events were particularly decisive in shaping its initial trajectory.
The first was President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to remain in Kyiv — to “ask for ammunition, not a ride.” By refusing evacuation, staying in the capital, and addressing Ukrainians through daily video messages, he projected resolve at a moment of profound uncertainty. Those broadcasts gave hope to the nation and demonstrated to the international community that Ukraine would resist.
The second was the successful defense of Hostomel and the repelling of Russian airborne (VDV) forces at Antonov Airport. The battle in and around Hostomel proved pivotal. Had Russia secured the airfield as a staging ground, it could have rapidly airlifted additional forces to encircle Kyiv and attempt a decapitation strike. By denying Moscow that foothold, Ukrainian defenders disrupted the Kremlin’s initial operational plan and prevented a swift seizure of the capital.
A fascinating Guardian investigation reveals remarkable behind-the-scenes details of Ukraine’s final preparations before Russia’s full-scale invasion.
On 22 February 2022, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council met in Kyiv. Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi pushed for the immediate introduction of martial law, which would have allowed full troop mobilization. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov supported him. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, feared triggering panic, and the council opted instead for a state of emergency — a more limited measure.
Despite legal constraints, Ukraine’s military leadership quietly began last-minute defensive steps. Mines were laid in the Black Sea to deter a potential amphibious assault on Odesa, and units were repositioned to more strategic locations — actions technically unauthorized at the time. As one general later admitted, had the invasion not occurred, commanders might have faced legal consequences. Nevertheless, they judged there was no alternative.
Simultaneously, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) was acting on detailed Western intelligence. On 18 February, HUR chief Kyrylo Budanov received a three-hour briefing outlining Russia’s plan to seize Hostomel airfield near Kyiv. That intelligence informed urgent defensive preparations. Even so, the battle for Hostomel in the first days of the war was chaotic and narrowly decided — a close-run fight that ultimately helped derail Moscow’s initial plan to capture the capital quickly.
On February 17, 2022, the UK Ministry of Defence published a map outlining possible Russian invasion routes into Ukraine. It highlighted key attack directions, including a northern push toward Kyiv, with Hostomel Airport as a key target. Just days later, on February 24, Russia’s assault unfolded almost exactly as predicted, with an airborne operation at Hostomel aimed at securing a foothold for a rapid advance on the capital. (Source: UK Ministry of Defence / X)
Had these two events unfolded differently — with Zelenskyy fleeing Kyiv and Russian troops capturing Hostomel — the trajectory of the war would have been fundamentally different.
